In 2008, the housing bubble burst, which took our whole economy into the “Great Recession,” the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, which began in 1929.  In the current decade, the process could be reversed, with an economic downtown slowing the latest run-up of housing prices.  Is a recession eminent?  No one knows for sure, and unique factors both globally and locally will play as yet an unknown role in in determining the answer to that question.

As an economics major (who still makes a practice of studying the discipline), a former Federal Reserve Bank employee and a life-long banker, I have long believed that the interest rate yield curve shape has been the most reliable indicator of an impending recession over the last 65 years.  The interest rate yield curve is said to be inverted when the interest paid on a one-year US Treasury security exceeds the rate paid on a 10-year instrument; normally, the curve slants up, not down.  Every measurable recession since I was born (there have been 9 since 1956) has been predicted by the inversion of the yield curve.  Only once during that time period did an inversion occur without an ensuing recession.  We are close to another yield curve inversion; in fact, it has occurred momentarily several times in the last few weeks.

How does the inverted yield curve impact housing?  Eventually, the rise in short-term interest rates pushes up longer term rates, including home mortgages.  A rise in unemployment usually follows the rate increase.  When mortgage rates and unemployment increase significantly, the housing market slows down.  This will be particularly hard on rural America as we have not experienced the building boom seen in metropolitan areas, and our crying need for additional housing will go unmet awhile longer.

Making it even more difficult for Bourbon County to generate new housing is the hangover from the 2008 housing bust.  Previously, we had several builders who were eminently qualified and resourced to build a quality home here, but no longer.  Yes, we still have qualified builders, but they no longer have subcontracting crews on which they can rely to construct a quality home on time and on budget; those tradesmen are not sitting around waiting for the next opportunity.  Assembling the expertise to build a new home in the future will be a challenge.

Bourbon County REDI and the board of the new Land Bank are aware of these factors, and are committed to searching for creative solutions.  It will not be easy, but we need to stay alert for opportunities to solve the housing needs in all of Bourbon County.

During the Los Angeles riots in the 1990’s, a reporter encountered three looters leaving a store. He asked them what they took, and the first two told him off with profanity. But the third
man said, “I got some gospel music. I love Jesus!”

I just don’t get it.

Currently, I am in a Zoom Bible study, and this week we are covering the book of Judges…one of the most depressing, frustrating books in the Old Testament. Perhaps the entire Bible. Which is probably why that book ends with these solemn words: In those days there
was no king in Israel; everyone did what was right in his own eyes.
In a nutshell, the Israelites, God’s chosen people, messed up. Not once. Not twice.

Dozens, if not hundreds of times.

Then they repented, begged for God’s help avenging
whomever they had unrightfully attacked, and acted holy…until, that is, they didn’t.

We are left scratching our heads, wondering what is wrong with these guys, but the truth is, they aren’t totally unholy. I mean, they ask for a priest’s intervention, talk openly about their
love for Yahweh, cling to vows they have taken and even attack clans that should have been destroyed when the Israelites crossed into the Promised Land.

But then they act out of fleshly lust or ignore the difficult part of God’s commands or make stupid pledges that cost them lives…theirs and others (like 25,000 at a time). A “little” holy, perhaps?

Of course, God never calls us to be a little holy (which is sort of like a being a little alive). There are no portion controls in Kingdom living. We Christians just live as if there are.

While researching the back-story of Judges, I ran across an article from David Guzik’s “Study Guide to Judges 18” where he gives an example of people caught between holy and
unholy living.

“In Europe in the 14 th century, unemployed soldiers often became small armies of bandits and robbed and burned and killed and raped in towns and villages all over Europe. These
brutal criminals often negotiated with a town before attacking it.

“If the town agreed to give the brutes a large amount of money, the army left the city alone. If the town refused to give the money or could not give the money, they attacked. These were done with formal negotiations and contracts. They have discovered that when these horrible men came to a monastery, they insisted on money as well – but they also demanded that the priests of the monastery give them a written document saying that all their sins were forgiven.”

I just don’t get it.

Look again at Judges 21:25: In those days there was no king in Israel; everyone did what was right in his own eyes. I wonder if those words can be tweaked a little.

In present days there is little Lord in America; everyone does what is right in his/her own eyes.

This Sunday, we will celebrate Easter. My son’s church in Florida requires online registration to attend. Multiple services are added because Easter is, for many, the only time they tend to come.

They will hear how Jesus died for their sins, but Hallelujah…He lives! He lives to give us new life, to make us into new creations, to enable us to spend eternity in Heaven.

There is no more powerful message