In 2008, the housing bubble burst, which took our whole economy into the “Great Recession,” the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, which began in 1929.  In the current decade, the process could be reversed, with an economic downtown slowing the latest run-up of housing prices.  Is a recession eminent?  No one knows for sure, and unique factors both globally and locally will play as yet an unknown role in in determining the answer to that question.

 

As an economics major (who still makes a practice of studying the discipline), a former Federal Reserve Bank employee and a life-long banker, I have long believed that the interest rate yield curve shape has been the most reliable indicator of an impending recession over the last 65 years.  The interest rate yield curve is said to be inverted when the interest paid on a one-year US Treasury security exceeds the rate paid on a 10-year instrument; normally, the curve slants up, not down.  Every measurable recession since I was born (there have been 9 since 1956) has been predicted by the inversion of the yield curve.  Only once during that time period did an inversion occur without an ensuing recession.  We are close to another yield curve inversion; in fact, it has occurred momentarily several times in the last few weeks.

 

How does the inverted yield curve impact housing?  Eventually, the rise in short-term interest rates pushes up longer term rates, including home mortgages.  A rise in unemployment usually follows the rate increase.  When mortgage rates and unemployment increase significantly, the housing market slows down.  This will be particularly hard on rural America as we have not experienced the building boom seen in metropolitan areas, and our crying need for additional housing will go unmet awhile longer.

 

Making it even more difficult for Bourbon County to generate new housing is the hangover from the 2008 housing bust.  Previously, we had several builders who were eminently qualified and resourced to build a quality home here, but no longer.  Yes, we still have qualified builders, but they no longer have subcontracting crews on which they can rely to construct a quality home on time and on budget; those tradesmen are not sitting around waiting for the next opportunity.  Assembling the expertise to build a new home in the future will be a challenge.

 

Bourbon County REDI and the board of the new Land Bank are aware of these factors, and are committed to searching for creative solutions.  It will not be easy, but we need to stay alert for opportunities to solve the housing needs in all of Bourbon County.

During the Los Angeles riots in the 1990’s, a reporter encountered three looters leaving a store. He asked them what they took, and the first two told him off with profanity. But the third
man said, “I got some gospel music. I love Jesus!”

I just don’t get it.

Currently, I am in a Zoom Bible study, and this week we are covering the book of Judges…one of the most depressing, frustrating books in the Old Testament. Perhaps the entire Bible. Which is probably why that book ends with these solemn words: In those days there
was no king in Israel; everyone did what was right in his own eyes.
In a nutshell, the Israelites, God’s chosen people, messed up. Not once. Not twice.

Dozens, if not hundreds of times.

Then they repented, begged for God’s help avenging
whomever they had unrightfully attacked, and acted holy…until, that is, they didn’t.

We are left scratching our heads, wondering what is wrong with these guys, but the truth is, they aren’t totally unholy. I mean, they ask for a priest’s intervention, talk openly about their
love for Yahweh, cling to vows they have taken and even attack clans that should have been destroyed when the Israelites crossed into the Promised Land.

But then they act out of fleshly lust or ignore the difficult part of God’s commands or make stupid pledges that cost them lives…theirs and others (like 25,000 at a time). A “little” holy, perhaps?

Of course, God never calls us to be a little holy (which is sort of like a being a little alive). There are no portion controls in Kingdom living. We Christians just live as if there are.

While researching the back-story of Judges, I ran across an article from David Guzik’s “Study Guide to Judges 18” where he gives an example of people caught between holy and
unholy living.

“In Europe in the 14 th century, unemployed soldiers often became small armies of bandits and robbed and burned and killed and raped in towns and villages all over Europe. These
brutal criminals often negotiated with a town before attacking it.

“If the town agreed to give the brutes a large amount of money, the army left the city alone. If the town refused to give the money or could not give the money, they attacked. These were done with formal negotiations and contracts. They have discovered that when these horrible men came to a monastery, they insisted on money as well – but they also demanded that the priests of the monastery give them a written document saying that all their sins were forgiven.”

I just don’t get it.

Look again at Judges 21:25: In those days there was no king in Israel; everyone did what was right in his own eyes. I wonder if those words can be tweaked a little.

In present days there is little Lord in America; everyone does what is right in his/her own eyes.

This Sunday, we will celebrate Easter. My son’s church in Florida requires online registration to attend. Multiple services are added because Easter is, for many, the only time they tend to come.

They will hear how Jesus died for their sins, but Hallelujah…He lives! He lives to give us new life, to make us into new creations, to enable us to spend eternity in Heaven.

There is no more powerful message

Keys to the Kingdom

My brother (retired senior pastor) kept a jar of marbles on his church office desk just for a witty conversation piece. The thing that brought grins and chuckles from his parishioners was the sign posted beside it: “Lost your marbles? Take a few.” Randy’s container had Pee Wees, Shooters, and Boulders; the most-popular marble that people chose was the  cat’s eye Shooter. Although I’ve never played the game, I have a few marbles of my own. “Losing your marbles” is a familiar colloquialism. If you’ve said or done something goofy, you may have even had a good friend  ask, “Have you lost your marbles?!”

 

We all have days when we do ridiculously-stupid stuff and an eyewitness would probably think we’ve lost our marbles. I can use myself to illustrate this point. Many years ago, I was preparing to go somewhere and I placed my camera on top of the car as I loaded everything. Silly story short, I later found the smashed-to-smithereens camera on the road a half mile from my house. Needless to say, I didn’t take any pictures that day. I can recall  two different times when I attempted to make sweet tea using salt. That didn’t turn out well at all. Now for the most-recent scatterbrained example: After I had written, proofed, tweaked, and saved this column for publishing, I opened it up several days later and  accidentally deleted it. Poof! The document was gone like a ‘57 Chevy — so I had to rebuild it from scratch. I sure could’ve used one of my brother‘s marbles that day!

 

Sometimes it’s quite a challenge to get all your marbles in a row and keep ‘em there. Once they get loose, they’re liable to roll anywhere. The Bible speaks plainly about the mind of believers. “God has not given me a spirit of fear, but of power, love, and a sound mind” (2 Timothy 1:7 KJV). If our thoughts are causing anxiety, we’re probably not rejecting the lies, fears, and doubts that Satan throws at us. God gives believers the power to have a sound mind which enables us to be at peace in troubling situations.

 

Christians have to actively control what we allow into our minds. Understanding the following scripture may dissuade us from watching the news 24-7: “And now, dear brothers and sisters, one final thing. Fix your thoughts on what is true, and honorable, and right, and pure, and lovely, and admirable. Think about things that are excellent and worthy of praise” (Philippians 4:8 NLT). Fixing our minds on good news (what God says in His Word) is crucial. Not focusing on bad news is also crucial if we want God’s peace in our life. Jesus said that He was leaving His own peace with us,  which is the real thing and not an imitation peace that the devil offers. “I am leaving you with a gift — peace of mind and heart. And the peace I give is a gift the world cannot give. So don’t be troubled or afraid” (John 14:27 NLT).

 

The biblical and common-sense approach to life is found in this scripture: “Lean on, trust in, and be confident in the Lord with all your heart and mind and do not rely on your own insight or understanding” (Proverbs 3:5 AMP). Believers are to entrust their lives and everything in life to their all-wise and loving heavenly Father. We can rest easy knowing we can rely on Him to take care of our every need.

 

The Key: God knows how to keep your marbles from scattering and getting lost.

In our economic system, nothing drives the economy more than capital investment.  It is the fuel for the engine of business and our country’s fiscal wellbeing.  Very little constructive happens apart from men and women with funds to invest deciding to take risks for an attractive return on their money.

 

Several megatrends that have impacted our nation since the beginning of World War II have served to shift capital investments away from small communities into urban areas.  Government tax policy, the explosion of business regulation at all levels, and cultural sentiments that have moved us away from capitalism to socialism are a few of the factors that have decreased the amount of capital investment in rural American and our economy as a whole.  More recently, our government has made it less attractive to produce energy by traditional means which discourages capital investments and disproportionately impacts rural America.  One does not see oil wells in the urban core of our cities.

 

As evidence, consider that between 1980 and 1989, business investment in equipment, software and structures grew by 2.7% per year on average and 5.7% in the decade of the ‘90’s; between 2000 and 2011, that number was a paltry 0.5% per year, less than one-tenth the amount of the previous decade.  Moreover, as a share of Gross Domestic Product, business investment has declined by more than 3% since 1980.  If we had the numbers divided between rural America and urban areas, I am sure that they would show that we have borne much more of the decline on a percentage basis.

 

The most obvious example of this in Bourbon County is the dearth of new construction over recent decades.  One simply cannot create value by building something new, as evidenced by the gap between an appraisal and construction costs.  This is also true of new houses.  Nothing puts a damper on capital investment more than the potential of an immediate double-digit percentage loss on that investment.  Naturally, an entrepreneur will build their building and their business in a location where value is created.

 

As an alternative, many Bourbon County men and women have stepped up and purchased struggling buildings and converted them to productive use, opening the doors to a new business in the process.  These people love Bourbon County and are willing to risk the negative return on investment to see us move forward.  Next time you drive by a newly remodeled business location, stop in and thank them by buying something.

 

Bourbon County REDI has this capital investment gap in our crosshairs, looking for ways to close the value gap and help facilitate growth in our business community; sometimes this involves grants, creative financing or angel investments.  If you love Bourbon County, be a part of the solution by helping us reduce barriers to successful entrepreneurship and supporting the men and women who have invested their

I am beyond excited!  For not a few years, I have been writing a book.

Call it my “Rejection Collection” if you will, but the actual title is A Little Faith Lift…Erasing the Lines of the Enemy.  And yes, it was difficult to narrow down my personal anecdotes into 25 chapters, but I’ve tried to choose the best of the best.  Or should I say, the worst of the worst?

At any rate, once my book was finished, I started worrying.

What if no one sees merit in it?

Who am I to try and enter the world of authorship when there are hundreds struggling to do the same?

Will I survive if it receives bad reviews?

Would it be tacky to pay my friends to write good ones?

Could it be that I’m the only one who has enough stories of rejection/embarrassment to fill an entire book, so no one will relate…and I’ll be alone, sitting on an island somewhere, yes, alone, reading one of my many…well, books…because I had to pre-order 5,000 of them which, of course, didn’t work out so well for me?

(Did I mention that I will be alone?)

Do you see a problem here?  I wrote a book on overcoming rejection, yet clearly, I have a tad bit of work to do to take my own advice.

A month ago, John, a respected agent, read my first four chapters and wanted to represent me to the Christian publishing world.  For days, I walked around in a stupor, not knowing if I should share the unbelievable news with my friends or not.  I certainly never expected an agent with his reputation to take on someone who had never authored a book, but when his wife read my chapters on an airplane and “laughed at loud in several places” and told her husband so, the deal was sealed.

The next step was for me to write a book proposal.  Twenty-seven pages later, I sent my 1800^th revision to John.

It lacked one thing: I didn’t have a huge social media following. Publishers insist on it.  In other words, people have to know me before they want to really know me.

For starters, I had to get an Instagram account.  And yes, I know Instagram has been around for a decade, but I was intimidated by it…which is nuts because one of my chapter titles is this: “The Worse Failure?  Failing to Try.”

In that same chapter, I mention Jael, Abigail, Rahab, Ruth, the hemorrhaging woman and Mary Magdalene, all Biblical characters who took enormous risks.  A page later, I even wrote, “I fear too many people will end up with a life of Regret instead of Adventure.”  So, I took the plunge and between my son, my granddaughter, and my daughter-in-law, I find myself experimenting and now am a member (is that the right word?) of Instagram! You can follow me (please!) at patty_laroche.

This might be the gutsiest thing I’ve ever done in my life (writing the book, not joining Instagram).

What I do know is that I don’t want to look back, years from now, and wonder what might have happened if I didn’t take the risk.

Perhaps you can relate.  Someone/something has convinced you that you aren’t capable, yet you have a passion to press forward. Perhaps you want to design clothes.  Or have a yard sale.  Or sing in the praise and worship band.  Or learn to golf.  Or start a Bible study.  Or perfect a pecan pie.  Or…(you fill in the blank).

Whatever it is, let’s do this together.  Let’s take the risk like the Biblical heroines did so that we never regret not trying.

Keys to the Kingdom

“I Forgot to Remember to Forget” is a rockabilly/country song written by Stan Kesler and Charlie Feathers and was first recorded by Elvis in 1955. I especially like songs with a  great hook — a phrase that catches my ear and makes me think. The first time I heard this song, it made an unforgettable impression on me. Certain experiences in life are better forgotten than remembered. For example, if someone says or does something that hurts you, it’s best to just drop it, leave it, forget it, and move on.

 

Good memories are a source of comfort and joy that we can cherish forever. And bad memories aren’t to be wallowed in, but forsaken and left in the past. Jesus makes it quite clear that believers are to live our lives forward. “Jesus said to him, ’No one who puts his hand to the plow and looks back [to the things behind] is fit for the kingdom of God’” (Luke 9:62 AMP). Forget any negative circumstances that lie behind you and plow ahead toward God’s excellent master plan. Looking and living in reverse will severely hinder your ability to live the abundant life that Jesus died and arose to give you.

 

Most everyone has a tendency to revisit painful memories, but it should just be a flash of remembrance for believers. God doesn’t want us to dwell on (or live in) the past. You’re no good to yourself or your loved ones if you’ve been “out to lunch” since 1987. Make the decision to let go of past sorrows and disappointments. God’s grace is bounteously given to help us overcome all of our hurts, as Paul plainly instructs us. “That is why we never give up. Though our bodies are dying, our spirits are [our inner being is] being renewed every day” (2 Corinthians 4:16 NLT). He restores my soul — this is a “now” healing. God is an ever-present help and He needs us to keep heading toward our destiny.

 

In the Old Testament we find an amazing declaration spoken by Joseph in Genesis 41:51 ESV: “God has made me forget all my hardship.“ Obviously, God didn’t give Joseph amnesia, but He enabled him to live abundantly blessed in the present. His hurtful past was simply a fleeting memory because Joseph chose to focus on the goodness of God.

 

I taught piano for 25 years and, occasionally, it was necessary to instruct a student on the proper technique for correcting mistakes. If a student messed up in the middle of the piece, sometimes he/she would stop and start all over from the beginning. I would ask, “If you were on your way to Pittsburg and had a flat, after you changed the tire, would you drive back to Fort Scott and start the trip all over?” A straightforward explanation about moving on was all the student needed in order to correct a bad habit and faulty mindset.

 

Believers cannot successfully accomplish anything without fully depending on Christ Jesus. Since we are in Christ, we have mighty indwelling strength and strong encouragement to hold onto our hope. “So these are two things that don’t change, because it’s impossible for God to lie. He did this so that we, who have taken refuge in Him, can be encouraged to grasp the hope that is lying in front of us” (Hebrews 6:18 CEB). Don’t look backward, because hope is in front of you. My retired Navy pilot friend has often stated, “The runway behind you ain’t no good.”

 

The Key: Don’t forget to remember that God’s power equips you to forget an ugly past.

Selected Data

 

As with most rural communities, Bourbon County is a mixed bag of advantages and disadvantages that at once move us forward and hold us back.  I have spent the last year writing about what we need to do to strengthen our weaknesses and leverage what we do well.  To round out year one, let’s take a look at some selected data from the 2020 Kansas Statistical Abstract to give us a general sense of how we are doing.

 

Per capita personal income in Bourbon County is $46,149, which ranks us 71^st out of the 105 counties in Kansas.  Greeley County is number one, with almost $100,000 in per capita income, more than double our number.  Of the SEK counties, we rank first.  The worst SEK County? Montgomery at $39,041, placing them at 104^th; Crawford is only slightly better, ranking 103^rd.  Interesting side note, two Kansas counties have consolidated the county government with that of the largest cities within the county: Greeley and Wyandotte; ironically, Greeley ranks number one in personal income, Wyandotte dead last at 105.

 

Bourbon County does better when considering what percentage of our residents 25 years and older have a high school diploma; that number is 91.3%, which ranks us 57th in the state.  In this category, Allen and Crawford bested us at 91.9% and 92.1%, respectively.  These three SEK counties have respectable rankings near or above the top half of Kansas counties.  These are important numbers for future workforce development.

 

Our shining statistic is median age, in which we rank 28^th at 38.2 years; not bad for small town America.  As you might expect, Crawford County is much younger than we are with the median age at 32.6 years, ranking them in the top 10.  The balance of the SEK counties rank behind us, with Linn County as the oldest of the bunch at 44.8 years.  The youngest county in Kansas?  The home of the Wildcats: Riley County at 24.3 years.  Only four Kansas counties have a median age below age 30; the other three are Geary, Douglas and Seward.  Jewell County ranks as having the oldest residents in the state with a median age of 52.5.

 

Lastly, we have two challenges in this list of general statistics: unemployment rate and food stamp participation.  While we rank better than our neighbors on unemployment, our year-end 2020 number of 5.6% ranked us 88^th in the State.  Hamilton County is number one at 1.7%, while our most populous county, Sedgwick is dead last at 8.7%.  Food stamp participation is our Achilles Heel: we rank 104^th at 12.2% of residents.  Only Wyandotte County is worse at 12.8%.  As you might expect, the most food independent county in Kansas is Johnson at 2.1%.  Obviously, we are the bottom of the “food chain” in SEK.

 

These are not terrible numbers considering the challenges we have faced in the last 40+ years.  There is much upon which to build, and problems to solve.  Our economic development team has these important statistics in view, along with many others, as we invest our resources in Bourbon County.

Kenny Rogers made famous the song “The Gambler.” Occasionally, I find myself reciting a line from his lyrics: “You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away and know when to run.” I sing those words when sometimes—thankfully, not very often–I just have to give up.

For my own, mental, well-being. Guilt, be gone. Have you been there? A boss finds nothing but fault in your work. No praise. Only complaints. You know there is much to compliment, but the applause is used for co-workers who join him after work for a drink, not you. Your teacher uses you as her verbal punching bag, making your homework assignments “unacceptable” examples to your classmates, calling you out for forgetting a date in your heading or a crease in your page. Teacher’s pet you are not. A sibling pushes your buttons at every family function, reminding the relatives of the times you wet the bed when you were eight or were the last one chosen for the team dodge ball competition or were voted “most likely to never marry” (and you never did) in the mean-kid, middle-school group text. A “friend” attempts to make you feel guilty with passive-aggressive comments about how you let her down, always adding “LOL” afterwards in an effort to minimize the obvious criticism. “Well, I see you must be really busy because you can’t seem to find time to call me. LOL” “Of course, you would choose Becky over me. She always was your favorite. LOL” These are not fictional stories. I know the people to whom these incidents have happened.

One of my favorite Christian books that addresses the issue of guilt is Boundaries authored by Drs. Henry Cloud and John Townsend. Written to people who absorb guilt like Mike Lindell’s towels absorb water (at least, that’s what we’re told), the authors teach the readers to know when to say no in order to set healthy, biblical boundaries for themselves.

I appreciate how PhD Jamie Turndorf puts it in Psychology Today: “Nobody can take you on a guilt trip, if you aren’t willing to pack your bags and take the ride.”

Easier than it sounds. Because sometimes, that means that after you exhaust loving communication tactics, you walk away. Perhaps, even run.

“Jessie,” a dear friend of mine, joined Al-anon when her best friend’s alcoholism began to ruin their relationship. At her meetings, Jessie learned that when Sue called her and was drunk, she was to say, “Sue, I can tell you have been drinking. Please call me back when you are sober. I love you.” Then she hung up.

At first, Sue was livid, phoning Jessie nonstop to guilt her into listening. Ultimately, she got the message. Romans 8:1 is a Bible verse that we should all memorize: Therefore, there is now no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus… If Jesus doesn’t remind us of where we mess up, then no one else should, either.

Keys to the Kingdom

Both of my kids are in their 30s and married. But when they come home, it’s like they’ve never left. If they want something to eat or drink, they open the refrigerator or snack cabinet and take whatever suits their fancy. And that’s the way I want it and that’s the way it should be…at least where I come from. There’s a comfortable and loving feeling in making yourself at home. But in order to “make yourself at home” you have to have an up-close and personal relationship with the homeowner.

Too many believers admire God from afar. But He wants our relationship with Him to be genuine and intimate. In Jesus’ earthly life we can see the close relationship He had with His heavenly Father. Jesus spent a lot of time in prayer seeking direction before choosing the disciples, asking for comfort after John the Baptist was beheaded, etc. He depended on His Father to strengthen, console, and speak to Him. Jesus took time out from life’s routine to be alone with God. It’s not our natural tendency to be quiet before the Lord, but Jesus had victory because He fellowshipped with God. And the same is true for us.

Don’t let your sins, failures, or weaknesses come between you and your heavenly Father. God never moves away from us and Jesus never stops interceding for you. When the prodigal son took his inheritance and moved to a distant land, the father stayed right where he was. Day after day, He watched and longed for his son to return home. “So he returned home to his father. And while he was still a long way off, his father saw him coming. Filled with love and compassion, he ran to his son, embraced him, and kissed him…. His father said to the servants, ‘Quick! Bring the finest robe in the house and put it on him. Get a ring for his finger and sandals for his feet. …We must celebrate with a feast, for this son of mine was dead and has now returned to life. He was lost, but now he is found.’ So the party began” (Luke 15:20, 22-24 NLT). Even though the son made every wrong and stupid choice he possibly could, he finally came to his senses and made the decision to go back home. I imagine he had to step away from the loud, distracting, and obnoxious noises of the pigpen to hear God‘s tender voice of direction.

It’s important to understand that the son confessed his sins, failures, and weaknesses to his loving father. “His son said to him, ’Father, I have sinned against both heaven and you, and I am no longer worthy of being called your son‘” (Luke 15:21 NLT). Sweeping sin under the rug will not bring the forgiveness we need in order to have an up-close and personal relationship with our merciful Father.

In the Old Testament, the Lord whispered to Elijah. “And as Elijah stood there, the Lord passed by, and a mighty windstorm hit the mountain. It was such a terrible blast that the rocks were torn loose, but the Lord was not in the wind. After the wind there was an earthquake, but the Lord was not in the earthquake. And after the earthquake there was a fire, but the Lord was not in the fire. And after the fire there was the sound of a gentle whisper. When Elijah heard it, he wrapped his face in his cloak and went out and stood at the entrance of the cave. And a voice said, ‘What are you doing here, Elijah?’” (1 Kings 19:11-13 NLT).

The Key: If you want to feel at home with your heavenly Father, stay close enough to hear Him whisper.

Energy

We are all painfully aware of the rapid rise in gas prices over the last year, and the significant adjustments we have made in our personal budgets to accommodate the increases. The price at the pump has almost doubled in the last 14 months, setting a new all-time high of $4.33 per gallon of regular gasoline based on the national average.

As individuals and non-oil related businesses, we know this is bad for Bourbon County, but what about our oil producers in the county? Where do we stand in oil production compared to the other 104 Kansas counties? Ninety counties reported oil production in Kansas, leaving 15 with zero production. Cherokee County was the only Southeast Kansas (“SEK”) name on that short list.

Woodson County is the SEK leader in oil production, with 3,788 wells producing 449,792 barrels of oil in 2019. Assuming oil producers are receiving $50 per barrel more than they did in January of 2021, Woodson County would have generated additional gross revenue of $22.5 million in 2019; that is over $7,200 per county resident, which is significant. Of the producing counties in SEK, Labette was at the bottom with 104 wells producing 7,168 barrels, adding annual gross revenue of $358,400.

In 2019, Bourbon County had 697 wells that produced 56,442 barrels of oil. Assuming the same $50 a barrel price increase, that generates an additional $2.8 million dollars in gross revenue, which equates to about $197 per resident. Not insignificant, but certainly less impactful than our neighbors to the west.

These numbers represent estimated additional gross revenue, but inflation has not been limited to the price of oil. Certainly these producers have incurred significant addition costs to get the oil out of the ground and to the buyers. In the process, they have added to our tax base; however, the windfall has been experienced by a relatively few residents while the cost increases at the pump have hit all of us.

The energy sector is another example of how national policies impact rural America beyond our control. We are experiencing the penalty of an overzealous rush to clean energy at the expense of our current system. Common sense would dictate that we let the pace of technological advances determine how quickly we evolve from fossil fuel to renewables. It is too soon to cancel pipelines, withhold Federal real estate from leasing, increase the cost of drilling permits and limit fracking. Additionally, our enemies benefit when we forfeit our energy independence.

Climate change is definitely a factor in all energy discussions, but the best science does not forecast an eminent catastrophe. In the meantime, let us efficiently use our existing energy resources while alternative technology advances, and minimize the negative impact to rural America and our country as a whole. An “all of the above” approach to energy, including nuclear, is best for rural America.